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IMF Upgrades Outlook For the Global Economy in 2023

WASHINGTON — The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-COVID policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. That’s the view of the International Monetary Fund, which now expects the world economy to grow 2.9% this year. That forecast is better than the 2.7% expansion for 2023 that the IMF predicted in October, though down from the estimated 3.4% growth in 2022. The IMF, a 190-country lending organization, foresees inflation easing this year, a result of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Those rate hikes are expected to slow the consumer demand that has driven prices higher. Globally, the IMF expects consumer inflation to fall from 8.8% last year to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. “Global conditions have improved as inflation pressures started to abate,” the IMF chief economist, Pierre-Oli...

Disney 3-night Baja cruise recap

Sharing a full recap of our latest Disney cruise: the 3-night Baja cruise from San Diego. Just a heads up that this post wasn’t sponsored or comped (I wish lol) – just sharing our experience since I know many of you also love a lil Disney magic.  Hi friends and hello back in the real world after an amazing double vacay: a trip to San Diego followed by an incredible Disney cruise. I’m still slightly swaying from the boat’s motion and walking downstairs, disappointed to find that no full buffet is waiting for me. It’s been a rough transition, let me tell ya. We were back on the Wonder (we sailed on the Wonder to Alaska a few years ago!) and it felt SO GOOD to be back at one of our favorite vacation spots and surrounded by amazing friends. Our friends from Tucson joined us – they’re professional Disney cruisers (this was #9 for them) and we’ve been friends since Kathryn brought me a baby meal after Liv was born! Our Kleiger fam from San Diego joined in the fun, too, and it was such a ...

Justin Roiland Will No Longer Be a Part of 'Rick and Morty'

W ith Rick and Morty co-creator Justin Roiland awaiting trial on domestic violence charges, the future of the animated comedy series has been hanging in the balance. Now, Adult Swim, the network where Rick and Morty airs, has announced that it has cut ties with Roiland and will be recasting his voice roles on the show. Adult Swim’s decision arrives less than two weeks after NBC News first reported on Jan. 12 that Roiland had been charged with felony domestic violence in Orange County, Calif., in connection with a January 2020 incident involving an unnamed woman he was dating at the time. The news broke the same day that Roiland appeared in court for a pre-trial hearing in the case. “Adult Swim has ended its association with Justin Roiland,” Marie Moore, senior vice president of communications for Warner Bros. Global Kids, Young Adults, and Classics division, said in a statement on Tuesday, according to The Hollywood Reporter . What charges is Justin Roiland facing? Roiland was ch...

Four Oath Keepers Convicted of Jan. 6 Seditious Conspiracy

WASHINGTON — Four members of the Oath Keepers were convicted Monday of seditious conspiracy in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack in the second major trial of far-right extremists accused of plotting to forcibly keep President Donald Trump in power. The verdict against Joseph Hackett of Sarasota, Florida; Roberto Minuta of Prosper, Texas; David Moerschel of Punta Gorda, Florida; and Edward Vallejo of Phoenix comes weeks after after a different jury convicted the group’s leader, Stewart Rhodes, in the mob’s attack that halted the certification of President Joe Biden’s electoral victory. Read More: Inside One Combat Vet’s Journey From Defending His Country to Storming the Capitol It’s another major victory for the Justice Department, which is also trying to secure sedition convictions against the former leader of the Proud Boys and four associates. The trial against Enrique Tarrio and his lieutenants opened earlier this month in Washington and is expected to last several weeks. The W...

The Impact of a Single Missile

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EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — An explosion last week, in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killed two people and created heightened concern about just how quickly the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict.  The Cipher Brief compiled a tic-toc of what happened, telling the story of how a single missile brought into sharp focus, the risks that are truly at play in Ukraine. BACKGROUND Polish Radio ZET reported that two stray missiles caused the blast. The Associated Press cited a senior US intelligence official saying Russian missiles had crossed into Poland. The Pentagon initially said it could not confirm reports that Russian missiles had landed in Polish territory.   The Russian Defense Ministry denied the reports, calling the allegations “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.”  It added that Russia did not hit targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border and that debris found at the site of the blasts had “nothing to do with Rus...
EXPERT ANALYSIS — Deep tech ventures have steadily gained stature as keystones of future economic and national security success. This sector nevertheless faces stiff challenges. Deep tech projects typically require lengthy R&D cycles and large capital investment before they break into use. They are characterized by a high level of uncertainty and technical risk. When successful, however, they often create broad market acceptance and dual use applications. For national security, much attention has been paid to AI-enabled weapons and intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) systems. These comprise a natural growth area for deep tech innovations, and cover tactical platforms to major air, naval, subsurface, and space armaments and technologies. “ The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” — Sept. 2018, Studies...

The Nexus of Climate Change and National Security

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EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The COP27 conference in late November put climate change back on the agenda. The summit ended with an historic agreement to establish a loss and damage fund to support countries already ravaged by the effects of climate change. However, there was little progress on other areas such as reducing emissions. COP27 came after another year in the wake of climate disasters. From heatwaves in Europe to catastrophic flooding in Pakistan to the worst drought in the Horn of Africa in 40 years, climate disasters caused billions in damages and economic losses and killed thousands in 2022. Beyond immediate human costs and physical destruction, climate change is set to exacerbate geopolitical tensions in various ways. Experts say displacement and food insecurity from climate disasters will magnify migration and refugee crises and political unrest. Climate-induced changes to the physical environment will open new points of conflict, such as with resource scarcity and the open...